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I regress meaning8/11/2023 Investment success is an imperfect measure of investor prowess. So it's not surprising that we see regression in height - unusually tall parents tend to have somewhat shorter children, while the reverse is true of unusually short parents. The former is more likely, simply because there are many more people with six-foot genes than with seven-foot genes. A person who is six-feet, six-inches tall might have six-foot genes and have experienced positive environmental influences or might have seven-foot genes and had negative environmental factors. Height is an imperfect measure of the genetic influences that we inherit from our parents and pass on to our children. And regression is by no means confined to test results. This tendency of people who score far from the mean to score closer to the mean on a second test is an example of regression toward the mean. Similarly, a person who scores well below average is likely to have had an off day, and should anticipate scoring somewhat higher on later tests. And so it's more likely that if they sit a second test, their score will be lower. The former is more likely simply because there are more people with ability in the lower 90 per cent. So someone who scores in the top 10 per cent on a single test could have a lower ability but have done unusually well, or could be someone of higher ability who did poorly. A person's score on any single test is an imperfect measure of ability.Īnd someone whose test score on a single test is high relative to the other people who took the test probably also scored high relative to his or her own ability, ie they got lucky. That doesn't mean you'll get 80 per cent correct on every test - you will know the answers to more than 80 per cent of the questions on some tests and to less than 80 per cent on others. Suppose your average score on history tests is 80 per cent. Like using the results of a single test as a measure of your ability in that field. We encounter regression to the mean almost every day, but almost nobody understands it.įrom sporting prowess to investment success, and jobseeking to KPIs, it crops up pretty much whenever we see an imperfect measure of what we are trying to measure. The Flynn effect: your kids are smarter than you, Science Online,.
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